基于综合承载力的吉林适度人口分析-应用生态学报.PDF
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应 用 生 态 学 报 2017年10月 第28卷 第 10期 http:/ / www.cjae.net
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ChineseJournal of Applied Ecology,Oct. 2017,28(10):3378 3384 DOI:10.13287/ j.1001 9332.201710.022
基于综合承载力的吉林省适度人口分析
∗
李秀霞 孟 玫
(吉林师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,吉林四平 136000)
摘 要 运用状态空间法构建区域适度人口模型,利用主成分分析求取权重,对2005—2014
年吉林省适度人口进行测算,并探讨其形成原因,提出解决对策.结果表明:2005—2014 年,
吉林省适度人口一直处于赤字状态,说明吉林省人口、资源与环境处于一种不协调状态;吉林
省资源承载人口显著高于经济承载人口和生态承载人口,说明吉林省经济发展是以牺牲环境
为代价;吉林省土地资源承载人口远高于水资源承载人口和能源承载人口,处于赤字状态,说
明吉林省经济发展是以耗竭自身能源和水资源为基础.今后应因地制宜,提高水资源承载力;
开发新能源,提高能源利用效率;由粗放型、消耗型资源利用方式向集约型、低碳型转变;改变
人类的生产方式和消费模式,注重保护生态环境.
关键词 承载力;状态空间法;适度人口;吉林省
Optimum population analysis of Jilin Province, China based on comprehensive carrying
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capacity. LIXiu⁃xia ,MENGMei (Collegeof Tourismand Geography Science,JilinNormal Uni⁃
versity,Siping 136000,Jilin,China).
Abstract:The regional moderate population model was constructed using state⁃space method,and
the weightsofrelevantfactorswereobtainedusingprincipalcomponentanalysis.Theoptimumpopu⁃
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lation of Jilin Province during 2005 2014 was calculated and the causesfor itsformation were dis⁃
cussed. The results showed that the optimum population of Jilin Provincewasin deficit from2005-
2014,andtheimbalanceexistedbetweenthepopulation,resourcesandenvironment.Theresources
carrying population was significantly higher than the economic carrying and the ecological carrying
population,indicating that the economic development of Jilin Province was established at the ex⁃
pense of destroying th
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