中央气象局气候监测预报和分析作业系统.ppt

CWB Climate Projectof Climate Variations and Severe Weather Monitoring / Forecasting System Development Program 2002-2009 GOALS To develop an adaptable climate prediction, monitoring and analysis integrated system for end users with the aims of: mitigating climate-related disasters contributing to the national sustainable development improving the understanding of regional climate variations Dynamical-Statistical Prediction System Global Model Improvement Dynamical Climate Forecast Models Multi-Model Ensemble and Downscaling Operational Forecast System Management Dynamical-Statistic Prediction System1. Global Model Improvement ： Model: CWB/GFS Team: 汪鳳如，馮欽賜 Dynamical-Statistical Prediction System- Model (CWB/GFS) Improvement Improvement schedule Dynamical-Statistic Prediction SystemCWB/GFS – 物理改進(1) Shallow convection 更新效益 1.修正西太平洋副熱帶區（15-30N）及東太平洋靠近中美洲(10-20N)之過強網格尺度降水 2.修正東太平洋的間熱帶輻合帶（ITCZ）對積雲降水之低估 Dynamical-Statistic Prediction SystemCWB/GFS – 物理改進(2) Soil model 更新效益 1.改進沙漠乾熱區對地表蒸發之高估 2.基於對土壤濕度初始場的敏感度，預期 隨觀測分析技術之進展，將有連帶進步空間 Dynamical-Statistic Prediction SystemCWB/GFS – 物理改進(3) Grid Scale Precipitation 收支分析顯示輻射有主導性的影響 將雲水預報量與輻射過程作適當連結，是引進pcw的重要伴隨工作，是現階段研究重點 下一階段將prognostic cloud scheme從 level2 更新為 level3（增加rain/snow預報） Dynamical-Statistic Prediction System2. Dynamical Climate Forecast Models ： 2.1 Intermediate Air-Sea Coupled Models（童雅卿，胡志文，黃文豪） 2.2 AGCM – GFS and ECHAM5（胡志文，任俊儒，鄭凱傑） Dynamical-Statistic Prediction System2.1. Intermediate Air-Sea Coupled Models ： Intermediate Atmosphere Model: Gill: (Gill, 1980) Statistical: (Kang and Kug, 2000) Intermediate Ocean Model: Original CZ: (Zebiak and Cane, 1987) Modified CZ: (Kang and Kug, 2000) UH 2 ?: (Fu and Wand , 2004) Intermediate Coupled Model (ICM): ICM1: Original Cane-Zebiak type Model, with Gill atmosphere model DATA: Observed SST and Wind Stress Anomaly ICM2a: Modified Cane-Zebiak type Model with statistical atmosphere