通货膨胀目标制在中国的可行性分析.pdf

论 文 摘 要 通货膨胀目标制是上世纪 90 年代在世界上兴起的新的货币政策制度框架， 目前已经有越来越多的国家已经实施或准备引入通货膨胀目标制，这些国家的实 践表明通货膨胀目标制在稳定经济和控制通货膨胀方面有良好的表现。现在也有 越来越多的专家学者开始关注这一经济学前沿的课题，自去年来，我国开始出现 通货膨胀，政府连续出台多项措施抑制物价上涨。现在讨论通货膨胀目标制也有 一定的现实意义。 本文借鉴世界通货膨胀目标制国家的实践经验，结合我国的国情讨论了现阶 段我国实行通货膨胀目标制的可行性问题。本文首先介绍了最近国内外学界对通 货膨胀目标制的研究情况，接着阐述了通货膨胀目标制理论层面的内涵，然后阐 述了通货膨胀目标制在操作层面的要素，随后考察了世界上通货膨胀目标制国家 的实践情况，并总结了他们实践中的经验教训和通货膨胀目标制所表现出来的优 点和缺点；然后结合通货膨胀目标制的要素和我国的实际情况，把我国的国情与 通货膨胀目标制所要求的条件进行逐一的比对，得出结论为：现阶段我国还不具 备引入通货膨胀目标制的条件，但我国货币政策改革应该以通货膨胀目标制为方 向，逐步的完善我国的货币政策调控机制。最后本文提出了改进我国货币政策的 建议。 关键词：通货膨胀目标制，货币政策，政策目标，可行性 ABSTRACT Inflation targeting is the new monetary policy framework which is merging in the world since 1990s of last century, there are already more and more countries have adopted or intend to introduce inflation targeting , inflation targeting have a good performance in terms of stabilizing the economy and control inflation in these countries that adopted it. Now there are more and more scholars began to pay attention to this cutting-edge issue. Since last year, China appeared the trend that rising of the price, the Government have adopted a number of measures to control inflation. Discussion of inflation targeting is now also having some practical significance. This article discusses the feasibility of adopted inflation targeting by China now, drawing practical experience of inflation targeting countries in the world, combined with China’s national conditions. This paper introduces the recent international study on the situation of inflation targeting, and describes the theoretical basis of inflation targeting, examines