摩根大通欧洲医药行业研究报告.pdf

Europe Equity Research 27 May 2010 European Pharmaceuticals The Future of Insulin - Decoding a Macro Trend • Our proprietary bottom-up volume-based diabetes model for developed European Pharmaceuticals + BRIC markets reveals the long-term growth potential of the insulin AC Alexandra Hauber market: we project volumes to grow at 6% from 2009-2030 and the $ value (44-20) 7742-6655 / (1-312) 325-3694 to grow at 8% (2009-2030) to reach $63bn in 2030, up from $13.5bn in alexandra.m.hauber@ 2009. Upside from the Lantus ORIGIN study (which could double Richard Vosser insulination rates) and China (where diabetes prevalence could be much (44-20) 7742-6652 higher than assumed in our diabetes model) could raise those CAGRs to 7% richard.vosser@ and 9%, respectively. James Millett • BRIC markets expected to become meaningful source of demand: We (44-20) 7155 6665 expect BRIC market share of global insulin consumption to increase from lett@ 16% in 2009 to 46% in 2030; China is a key source of growth with its share