基于logistic回归模型确定权重的模糊综合评判法在边坡稳定性分析中 ....doc

基于Logistic回归模型确定权重的模糊综合评判法在边坡稳定性分析中的应用 饶运章 张学焱 （江西理工大学资源与环境工程学院，江西 赣州 341000） 摘要：应用Logistic回归模型确定权重的模糊综合评判法分析边坡稳定性，是主观评判和客观数据相结合的分析方法，其评判结果更让人容易接受，具有良好的适用性。选取重度、内聚力、内摩擦角、边坡角、孔隙水压力比5个因素作为评价因子，边坡状态稳定、较稳定、欠稳定、不稳定4个等级作为评价等级，建立评价等级和评价因子之间对应的关系，确定隶属度函数，建立综合评判模型；同时采用逻辑回归模型，应用42个边坡实例，运用SPSS（Statistical Product and Service Solutions）软件求解回归系数，采用回归系数来确定评判权重；将综合评判模型和确定的权重应用于龙南县东江乡足洞试验矿某边坡实例中，评判结果与实际相符合。 关键词：逻辑回归模型；综合评判；权重；边坡稳定性分析；SPSS BASED ON LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL TO DETERMINE THE WEIGHT FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION METHOD IN THE APPLICATION OF THE SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSIS RAO Yun-zhang，ZHANG Xue-yan (Jiangxi university of science and technology resources and environmental engineering institute, GanZhou, JiangXi 341000, China) Abstract:Using Logistic regression model to determine the weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of the slope stability analysis, is the combination of subjective and objective data analysis method, the evaluation result more let people easy to accept, has good applicability. Select severe, cohesion, internal friction angle, slope angle, pore pressure ratio that five factors as an evaluation factor. stable, relatively stable and unstable, volatile four level as evaluation level of slope.Establish evaluation grades and the corresponding relationship between the evaluation factors, determine the membership function,establish comprehensive evaluation model. At the same time, using logistic regression model, the application of forty-two slope as an example, using SPSS(Statistical Product and Service Solutions) software to solve regression coefficient and regression coefficient is used to determine the evaluation weights. The comprehensive evaluation model and determine the weight applied to a slope in Long-nan County East River Township Zu-dong test mine, evaluation result is consistent with actual. Key words：Logistic regression models，Comprehensive evaluation，The weight，Slope stability analysis，SPSS 0 引 言 模糊综合评判[1-7]是对受多因素影