中国商业银行流动性过剩研究（可编辑）.doc

摘 要 流动性过剩是近几年来我国经济发展过程中凸显出来的经济现象,对于金 融业分业经营体制和资金融通以商业银行为绝对主体的我国来说,流动性过剩 显然对商业银行本身和经济发展都是不利的。巨额的过剩流动性已经对中国商 业银行的资产运作能力提出了考验,也对中央银行的货币政策产生了新的挑战, 同时加剧了中国经济的结构性失衡。研究流动性过剩问题,无论是对防范流动 性风险、多渠道提高中国商业银行的经济效益,还是对我国经济的持续健康发 展都具有现实意义。 本文从商业银行的角度出发,首先对商业银行流动性过剩这个有争议的概 念进行明确界定,然后选取量化指标,即超额存款准备金和银行间市场人民币 交易成交量来判定目前中国商业银行处于流动性过剩状态。本文认为商业银行 流动性过剩会削减商业银行的盈利能力,降低金融资源的配置效率,导致实体 经济的过热和泡沫,影响货币政策的传导效果。在此基础上,理论分析并实证 论证了国际收支双顺差带来的巨额外汇储备、城镇居民人均可支配收入的提高、 高储蓄率、现金需求比的下降、直接融资工具的不发达和贷款规模扩张受限是 造成我国商业银行流动性过剩的主要原因。昀后针对成因相应地提出对策建议, 力求把商业银行流动性过剩转化为促进中国经济结构优化和升级、资本市场不 断完善的契机。本文的创新之处是,研究整个银行体系的流动性状况,并将研究对象放入 整个宏观经济环境之中,从而更全面地把握商业银行流动性过剩对宏观经济整 体的影响,从宏观经济的角度提出对策建议。 关键词:流动性过剩;商业银行;超额存款准备金;银行间市场人民币交 易成交量1Abstract Excess liquidity is an economic phenomenon that is highlighted in the course of Chinas economic development in the past few years. Because of the financial sub-sector management system and the commercial banks as the main financial intermediation in China, excess liquidity is absolutely negative to commercial banks and economic development. The huge surplus liquidity have tested the assets’ operational capacity of commercial banks in China, challenged the central bank’s monetary policy, exacerbated economic structural imbalance of China. Study on the excess liquidity have practical significance to prevent liquidity risk, improve Chinas commercial banks’ benefits, accelerate the sustained and healthy development of China’s economyFrom the point of view of commercial banks, excess liquidity of commercial banks, a controversial concept, will be clearly defined in this article. Then the excess reserve and Renminbi transactions of Inter-bank market are selected as the quantitative indicators, in order to estimate commercial banks’ excess liquidity at present. Excess liquidity of commercial banks will reduce the profitability of commercial banks, depress the efficiency of the allocation of financial resources, Lead to the real economy overheating and the bubble,