《source of complexity in air combat》.pdf

SOURCES OF COMPLEXITY IN AIR COMBAT st John Walton RED Scientific Ltd. Aerospace Consultant to Dstl Analysis Paper for 1ghInternational Symposium on Military Operational Research (ISMOR) Abstract. Thepaper first reviews drivers of air to air combat effectiveness and the salient characteristics of its development in time. Major causes of variability of outcome are traced, from stochastic processes occurring in the platform, sensor, and weapon systems to the multiple branching of decision trees. Development of meta-models using simple Lanchester equations are described briefly before using them and associated tools to illustrate characteristics reminiscent of chaos and catastrophe theory. Thepaper concludes with a rationale for combining simple “what-if” modelling tools with high fidelity models and man in the loop simulations. 1 Introduction It is generally accepted that air to air combat is complex. Classic close combat, evolved over generations of fighter pilots, could be described through a limited set of procedural rules both for training and for simulation and modelling. The emergence of Beyond Visual Range (BVR) combat meant that these rules could no longer be used. Actual combat experience has been severely limited so that tactics have largely been developed through combat exercises and simulation. At the same time, BVR operations require the integration of several different types of sensors and the filtering of fused information for presentation to the aircrew in head-up, head-down, multifunction and helmet mounted displays. All these developments have driven the modelling and simulation of air to air combat to higher and higher degrees of fidelity, aided by the ever increasingcapability of computers. Man Inthe Loop (MIL) simulations have allowed tactics d