贸易自由化的绿色生产率增长效应及其约束机制.doc

贸易自由化的绿色生产率增长效应及其约束机制 ——基于中国省际面板数据的门槛回归分析 摘要：十三五时期，我国经济绿色转型发展的紧迫性和重要性日益凸显，学界普遍认为贸易自由化是影响环境或生产率的重要因素，但对该问题的回答尚存在争议，尤其是缺乏对贸易自由化是否能促进绿色生产率增长的问题进行探讨。本文基于非线性视角，利用门槛回归技术对中国2003-2012年的省际面板数据考察发现，入世后，贸易自由化总体上显著促进了绿色生产率增长，但这种影响具有边际效率递减的非线性动态特征和显著的空间异质门槛效应U”型规律，而西部地区则呈现显著的负向倒“U”型规律，而在外商直接投资门槛下，全国和东中西三大地区依次具有明显的“U”型、正向“N”型、倒“N”型和负向倒“U”型特征；(3)贸易自由化的绿色生产率增长效应整体存在最优人力资本和外资水平区间，新常态下中国的外资水平虽已处于最优区间内，但人力资本水平尚未跨入最优区间。 关键词：新常态； 贸易自由化； 绿色生产率； 门槛效应； 约束机制 Green productivity growth effect of trade liberalization and its constraint mechanism ——Based on the threshold of the Chinese provincial panel data regression analysis Abstract: much starker choices-and graver consequences-in period, green transformation of economic development in our country, the urgency and importance of emerging academic circles is generally believed that trade liberalization is the important factors that affect the environment or productivity, but the answer to this question is still controversial, especially the lack of the question of whether trade liberalization can promote green productivity growth were discussed. Perspective based on the nonlinear, using threshold regression technology to China in 2003-2012 provincial panel data investigation found that after the wto accession, the liberalization of trade in general significantly promoted the green productivity growth, but the growth effect with diminishing marginal efficiency of nonlinear dynamic characteristics and significant spatial difference. Further constraint mechanism analysis of the nonlinear effect showed that (1) only when the human capital and the level of foreign direct investment, respectively cross a certain threshold, trade liberalization will be beneficial to green productivity growth, but the influence law lies only in the eastern and central regions; (2) under the constraints of human capital, national, eastern and central regions are characterized by obvious positive U type, while in the western region has significantly negative inver