汇率对股票价格的影响的对比.doc

汇率对股票价格的影响的对比 D(LNSZIN) = - 0.0391227901821*D(LNSZIN(-1)) - 2.14460270523*LNEXCH(-1) + 4.5090561258 LNEXCH = - 0.00387604208757*D(LNSZIN(-1)) + 1.04012182344*LNEXCH(-1) - 0.0858078957607 D(LNSZIN) = 0.0904965029061*( LNSZIN(-1) + 5.55432888351*LNEXCH(-1) - 18.9642537835 ) - 0.343041911647*D(LNSZIN(-1)) + 17.0724561265*D(LNEXCH(-1)) + 0.0729476775135 D(LNEXCH) = - 0.0031830974032*( LNSZIN(-1) + 5.55432888351*LNEXCH(-1) - 18.9642537835 ) - 0.00211479577553*D(LNSZIN(-1)) + 0.540071682888*D(LNEXCH(-1)) - 0.00163699425329 VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests Date: 04/12/10 Time: 20:55 Sample: 2004M01 2006M12 Included observations: 34 Dependent variable: D(LNSZIN) Excluded Chi-sq df Prob. LNEXCH ?9.295025 1 ?0.0023 All ?9.295025 1 ?0.0023 Dependent variable: LNEXCH Excluded Chi-sq df Prob. D(LNSZIN) ?0.124630 1 ?0.7241 All ?0.124630 1 ?0.7241  Dependent variable: D(LNSZIN) Excluded Chi-sq df Prob. D(LNEXCH) ?6.054370 1 ?0.0139 All ?6.054370 1 ?0.0139 Dependent variable: D(LNEXCH) Excluded Chi-sq df Prob. D(LNSZIN) ?0.188430 1 ?0.6642 All ?0.188430 1 ?0.6642 二、利率、存款准备金率对股票价格的影响的对比 LNZRATE = 1.06210760758*LNZRATE(-1) - 0.0225248146667*LNRATE(-1) + 0.0719998076583*D(LNSZIN(-1)) + 0.128723663908 LNRATE = 0.253602244216*LNZRATE(-1) + 0.799734234185*LNRATE(-1) + 0.0406452303873*D(LNSZIN(-1)) + 0.319013024505 D(LNSZIN) = 0.14337373997*LNZRATE(-1) + 0.283486302194*LNRATE(-1) + 0.123407689199*D(LNSZIN(-1)) + 0.86088874746 D(LNSZIN) = - 0.214933546563*D(LNSZIN(-1)) - 0.0732257650434*D(LNRATE(-1)) - 0.363558508752*LNZRATE(-1) - 0.698272879733 D(LNRATE) = 0.105432855071*D(LNSZIN(-1)) + 0.307187951357*D(LNRATE(-1)) - 0.126777688112*LNZRATE(-1) - 0.247893294758 LNZRATE = 0.00866649373084*D(LNSZIN(-1)) + 0.0913912449683*D(LNRATE(-1)) +