贵州省农产品价格影响因素分析及预测研究以猪肉价格为例.doc

贵州省农产品价格影响因素分析及预测研究---以猪肉价格为例 ———————————————————————————————— 作者： ———————————————————————————————— 日期： 贵州财经学院 在校学生科研工程结题报告 工程名称： 贵州省农产品价格影响因素分析及预测研究---以猪肉价格为例 负 责 人： 董志萍 所在院系： 数学与统计学院 指导教师： 张文专 完成时间： 2021年12月 课题组成员：董志萍〔统计学〕 印明辉〔统计学〕 二零壹壹年 科研处 制 目 录 1 绪论······························································1 研究背景·······················································1 研究目的·······················································2 研究现状·······················································2 研究思路与方法路线·············································3 研究方法····················································3 技术路线····················································3 研究创新之处以及缺乏···········································3 研究的创新之处··············································3 研究中存在的缺乏············································4 2 农产品价格形成机制及影响因素分析〔以猪肉价格为例〕·················4 猪肉价格形成机制研究···········································4 猪肉价格影响因素分析···········································4 市场内部影响因素············································5 市场外部影响因素············································7 猪肉价格影响因素的测度········································8 变量与样本的选择···········································8 模型形式与估计方法·········································9 估计结果分析···············································9 3 猪肉价格短期预测模型的构建和应用································10 3.1 研究方法以及模型的根本原理···································10 研究方法··················································10 模型的根本原理············································11 3.2 估计步骤·····················································12 3.2.1 利用ADF检验序列及其一阶差分的平稳性······················12 3.2.2 选择模型的滞后阶数········································13 Granger因果检验···········································13 3.2.4 Johansen协整检验及模型的建立·······························14 误差修正模型的构建·········································14 4 研究结论对于贵州省生猪产业以及整个农业开展的现实意义·············14 研究结论对生猪养殖业的意义·····················