贵州省农产品价格影响因素分析及预测研究以猪肉价格为例.doc
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贵州省农产品价格影响因素分析及预测研究---以猪肉价格为例
———————————————————————————————— 作者:
———————————————————————————————— 日期:
贵州财经学院
在校学生科研工程结题报告
工程名称: 贵州省农产品价格影响因素分析及预测研究---以猪肉价格为例
负 责 人: 董志萍
所在院系: 数学与统计学院
指导教师: 张文专
完成时间: 2021年12月
课题组成员:董志萍〔统计学〕
印明辉〔统计学〕
二零壹壹年 科研处 制
目 录
1 绪论······························································1
研究背景·······················································1
研究目的·······················································2
研究现状·······················································2
研究思路与方法路线·············································3
研究方法····················································3
技术路线····················································3
研究创新之处以及缺乏···········································3
研究的创新之处··············································3
研究中存在的缺乏············································4
2 农产品价格形成机制及影响因素分析〔以猪肉价格为例〕·················4
猪肉价格形成机制研究···········································4
猪肉价格影响因素分析···········································4
市场内部影响因素············································5
市场外部影响因素············································7
猪肉价格影响因素的测度········································8
变量与样本的选择···········································8
模型形式与估计方法·········································9
估计结果分析···············································9
3 猪肉价格短期预测模型的构建和应用································10
3.1 研究方法以及模型的根本原理···································10
研究方法··················································10
模型的根本原理············································11
3.2 估计步骤·····················································12
3.2.1 利用ADF检验序列及其一阶差分的平稳性······················12
3.2.2 选择模型的滞后阶数········································13
Granger因果检验···········································13
3.2.4 Johansen协整检验及模型的建立·······························14
误差修正模型的构建·········································14
4 研究结论对于贵州省生猪产业以及整个农业开展的现实意义·············14
研究结论对生猪养殖业的意义·····················
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