毕设论文供应链弹性分析.doc

清 华 大 学 综 合 论 文 训 练 题目：供应链弹性衡量指标探索与分析 系 别：工业工程 专 业：工业工程 姓 名：徐昕恺 指导教师：王晓芳 2007年 6月 10日 关于学位论文使用授权的说明 本人完全了解清华大学有关保留、使用学位论文的规定，即：学校有权保留学位论文的复印件，允许该论文被查阅和借阅；学校可以公布该论文的全部或部分内容，可以采用影印、缩印或其他复制手段保存该论文。 (涉密的学位论文在解密后应遵守此规定) 签 名： 导师签名： 日 期： 中文摘要 近年来自然灾害、事故、人为中断等供应链风险问题受到人们的关注，而它们给供应链带来的损害又随着供应链长度的增加、供应链全球化、产品周期缩短和难以预见的市场需求变化而放大。 为了应对这些难以克服的高风险低概率事件，供应链弹性的研究应运而生。Sheffi（2005）指出增加供应链弹性的手段在于增加冗余、提高供应链柔性、和改变企业文化。而关键之处在于改良供应链结构。 本文建立可变结构的完整供应链模型，通过仿真手段定量观察供应链弹性曲线，并抽象出能够描述弹性曲线的一套参数；之后设计仿真实验观察供应链不同结构参数（库存水平、供应链级数、可选择供应商来源数目）对于供应链弹性曲线的影响。同时观察分析供应链受到风险冲击和弹性恢复过程中的现象规律。并最终定量评价供应链结构参数对于供应链弹性的影响。 关键词：供应链，风险，结构，弹性 ABSTRACT Threats to supply chain——nature disasters, accidents, and intentional disruptions——their likelihood and consequence heightened by long, global supply chains, ever-shrinking product lifecycles, and volatile and unpredictable markets. No sure way exists for overcoming all such risks, especially high-impact/low-probability events, because the absence of historical data excludes the use of predictive statistical tools to help ensure containment of those risks. Supply chain resilience is then heightened to overcome these risks. Sheffi (2005) in his book gives three major methods to enhance supply chain resilience: increasing redundancy, building flexibility, and changing the corporate culture, which all rely on improving the infrastructure of supply chain. This paper gives an infrastructure-changeable supply chain network model and run simulation to seize the resilience curve. After abstract a series of parameters that can describe the resilience curve, we design simulation experiments to perceive the effect of different supply chain network parameters on supply chain resilience quantitatively. Also some phenomenon and rules appearing in the supply chain resilience process are described. Finally we give a quantitative assessment of the effect of different supply chain network parameters on supply chain resili