中国客运量及其影响因素分析（可编辑）.doc

中国客运量及其影响因素分析 摘要随着我国经济的快速发展,我国的交通运输也有明显的改善和发展。运输 行业的重要性随着我们经济的不断发展而快速提高,不管是旅客运输还是货物 运输的发展与变化都成为国民经济发展的重要部分,而在其中旅客运输又成为 运输行业的重中之重。进一步提高客运业的发展,是我国在新时期实现经济平 稳较快发展必不可少的条件。 而对于客运业的分析研究,在我国大部分还主要以定性研究为主,或者依 据相关统计部门的统计数据,只进行表面的比较对照,从而描述其发展趋势, 缺少对客运行业情况的深层次定量分析。因此,本文采用定量分析技术对这个 领域进行尝试性研究,选择客运量这个指标代表客运业发展进行分析。 本文首先对客运量及相关的发展情况和趋势在总的层面和不同客运方式层 面分别进行了分析,进而采用 EG 协整检验以及格兰杰因果检验,对不同运输 方式的客运业总量与人均国内生产总值、第三产业占 GDP的比重、客运线路建 设长度、城镇人口占总人口比重这几个变量之间的关系进行研究。结果表明公 路、民航客运量与第三产业结构比例之间不存在因果关系,民航客运量与人均 GDP是单向因果关系,并且需要进一步完善、改变不同客运方式的比例。 关键词:客运量,影响因素,因果检验 1 中国客运量及其影响因素分析 Abstract Along with our country economys fast development, our countrys transportation also has the distinct improvement and development. The importance of transportation industry enhances fast along with our economy unceasing development, no matter is the passenger transportation or goods traffics development becomes the important part of the national economy development, and passenger transportation becomes the most important. To further enhance passenger transportations industry development is the essential condition in the economical steady quick development in the new time But regarding passenger transportations industry analytical study, in our country, majority of them mainly use qualitative investigation, or based on the related statistical departments statistical data, only carries on superficial comparison , thus describes its trend of development, lack deep level quantitative analysis of the passenger transportation industry’s situation. Therefore, this article uses the quantitative analysis technology to conduct the experimental research to this domain, choose passenger capacity to stand for passenger transportation industry developmentFirst, analyze the development and trend of chinese passenger capacity and related factors totally and in different modes of passenger transportation. Then, use EG Conintegration Test and Grainger Causality to study the relation between the