企业财务风险预警指标体系的设计毕业论文.doc

本 科 毕 业 论 文 题 目 企业财务风险预警指标体系的设计 学 院 专 业 财 务 管 理 班 级 学 号 学生姓名 指导教师 摘 要 企业财务预警是一个完整的系统工程，是在企业所涉及各个环境和行为进程中设立的各种采集、测评、调节和控制的综合体，同时这个综合体也要对企业的各种行为提供完善和全面的决策依据，为未来风险控制和失误改正提供工作的准则，也为各种监控提供手段和工具。 本文首先对财务风险预警的相关概念与模型进行了阐述，然后根据我国财务风险预警的管理现状，选择了36家汽车制造业上市公司作为研究样本。通过中国上市公司资讯网搜集到的2007年—2009年的财务报表数据，运用财务比率分析模型与多变量模型相结合的方法进行实证分析，得出企业在构建财务风险预警指标体系时应当采用多个模型相结合分析的结论，必要时候还要引入非财务因素来提高预警系统的预警功效。 关键词：Abstract Corporate Finance early warning is a complete system project, which is a variety of collection, evaluation, regulation and control of complex set up in the process of various environmental and behavioral that Enterprises involved in, At the same time the synthesis should provide a sound and comprehensive basis for decision making of various acts of the enterprise, provide work guidelines for the future risk control and error correction, and provide methods and tools for a variety of monitoring. This paper firstly describes related concepts and models of early warning of financial risks, then according to the management status of financial risk early warning, select 36 listed companies in the automotive industry as the research sample. By news of Chinese listed companies, collect in the 2007 -2009 financial statement data, Use the method of combining financial ratio analysis model and multivariate model to expand empirical analysis, come to a conclusion that the enterprise should combine with multiple models in building early warning indicator system of financial risk, when necessary, the enterprise should also introduce the non-financial factors to improve the early warning effectiveness of early warning system. Keywords: Financial Early-warning; Financial Index; Early Warning System目